1. Field of the Invention
The present invention relates to a load forecasting analysis system, and more particularly, to a load forecasting analysis system for calculating a customer baseline load.
2. Discussion of the Related Art
As a conventional customer baseline load (CBL) forecasting method, a method (a regression model considering an average value and a weather factor) has been used to forecast a CBL per time period of a forecasting date employing past 15-minute load profile data. The method using the average value includes 10-day baseline, 8-day baseline, 5-day baseline, 3-day baseline, and time series analysis methods. In these methods, however, since a load characteristic varies according to operating environments and weather conditions, appropriate coordination elements and ratios should be applied by analyzing a correlation between seasonal factors and environment factors (temperature, humidity, discomfort index, etc.). The CBL may be forecast using the time series analysis method (e.g., a moving average method, exponential smoothing method, or autoregressive moving average model), which is a statistic analysis scheme.
In America etc., the above-described CBL forecasting methods have been used for calculation and determination for load reduction of customers. To apply these methods, a reliable procedure suitable for the electric power industry is required and an undistorted baseline load appropriate for demand characteristics for respective customers should be established.